A low pressure area looks like it may develop over the west-central Caribbean Sea by the weekend. The track for this system is forecast to be “moving slowly westward towards Central America through early next week” (starting Monday 15th of October).
The outcome will develop slowly and when it meets land there is the possibility that the formation may be reduced in strength. The forecast states a possibility of formation in the next 48 hours as 0 percent and in the next 5 days as 50 percent. At this time the outcome is only a forecast but this new low pressure could create new conditions for heavy rains in the north and pacific areas of Nicaragua.
Tomorrow, Friday 12th of October 2018, the amount of rain possible will be seen more clearly. The system is forecast to move towards Cabo Gracias a Dios o the Mosquito Coast between Monday and Tuesday of next week and then on through the northern part of Honduras. The Cabo Gracias a Dios cape receives an average rainfall of 3,940 mm (155 inches).
The concern for the Pacific area is the anti-clockwise rotation of the wind patterns that activate Pacific winds, which in turn bring rains to that side of the country.
The good news is that so far, there is no evidence of an equal low pressure formation on the Pacific side (as there was last week) which should translate to weaker rains if the weather pattern develops.
The main concern for Nicaragua (if the rains form) will be the areas that are already saturated, in particular low lying areas near rivers. Some of those areas are estimated to be 60% saturated and water could accumulate if there are normal seasonal rains prior to this system developing and heavy rains falling.
During this rainy season, May and June were normal, July and August experienced the expected “break” in the season, the September rains intensified towards the last part of the month and have continued through October.